The news is good for video phone handset makers, not so good news for programmers

The other week I posted about research that showed that once you cross the mobile video threshold, you are likely to use your mobile / cellphone as your main way of accessing the Internet.

Now we have a study by Infonetics Research that shows just how large the mobile video market – and so by extension the mobile Internet market – could be. Apparently by 2013, 397 million handsets with video capability will be sold.

That’s good news for Nokia, Apple et al, but just like with paid newspaper content, there are doubts about whether people will actually pay money to watch said video.

The reason? The limitations of 3G for one – I’ve for example downloaded the AlJazeera iPhone app, but I wouldn’t dream of watching it outside of a wi-fi area as my data plan with Vodafone isn’t unlimited and I’d be suspicious of the quality. According to analyst Jeff Heynen:

“A combination of poor macroeconomic conditions, sub par 3G network coverage for streamed video services, and pricing that puts mobile video services out of reach for many consumers is contributing to the lackluster growth of mobile video services around the world.

“While mobile video services are expected to eventually grow significantly, until operators combine broadcast, on-demand, and sideloading, revenue will remain a drop in the bucket of overall mobile service revenue.”

I also wonder whether the ‘free’ mentality has something to do with it, the same mentality which apparently means no more than 10% of us will fork out cash for online news. The AlJazeera example is a good one. I’ll pay for the app, I wouldn’t pay the stream.

Image – Shuffle Art