Wanting to get consumers interested? Resort to ‘backcasting’

Mar 11, 2009 by dirkthecow

A study released today by the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management says that the method in which we predict how we’ll feel in the future influences purchasing decisions now. And that by tuning into something called backcasting, marketers will have more success with consumers.

Jane Ebert, Daniel Gilbery and Timothy Wilson authored a piece of research all about forecasting and backcasting, and it’s impact on consumer behaviour. Forecasting is imaging a future event, thinking about how you will feel and predicting your feelings forward from there.

Backcasting apparently has more hedonic appeal – ie, more likely to spend and buy! It involves imagining your feelings in the future and then supposing how they will change if a prior event were to happen. For example, my birthday is coming up, which is great. And if my favourite sports team loses beforehand, it might make a difference. It’s a less linear way of thinking, and one that apparently is different in psychological terms

The researchers carried out four different studies to prove their point.

For example, one involved 100 students being recruited to fill out a questionnaire in exchange for candy (students really will do anything for freebies!). They were given random forecaster and backcaster scenarios – each involved buying a car that’s broken down but hearing today that they’d won $1000 from the dealer to spend on repairs. Forecasters were asked how they’d feel that moment, and backcasters how they’d feel in a week’s time.

In its simplest terms, it means a secret to brand success means clearly showing how you are going to improve the consumer’s life compared to what it would otherwise. You take a point in the future and work backwards. You also contextualise whatever you are promoting to fit within their lives

For example, in their press release the researchers took the example of an ad for a winter Caribbean Cruise.

If consumers see copy along the lines, “Winter getting you down? How’s it going to feel after three more weeks of this? Wouldn’t a sun-filled tropical vacation help? Book one today”, they will enjoy it more than if you talk in straight forward terms of ‘book a holiday, cure the winter blues.’

By getting consumers to think ahead about how bad more winter gloom will be, you can then insert your ‘event’ (a cruise) into the narrative to make it a more compelling and enjoyable proposition.

Image -Warm n Fuzzy